Notes from the current school year:
• Largest class 2021/22: Grade 9 with 472 students
• Largest cohort increase over 3 years: from 1st to 2nd year
• Smallest class 2021/22: Grade 12 with 395 students
• Largest cohort decrease over 3 years: from 10th to 11th grade
With the exception of the pandemic year, the $231 school district has historically seen an annual increase in enrollment, according to a report heard by the school board at its March 7 meeting.
To date, a full pandemic enrollment recovery has not occurred in 2020/21 – evidenced by the fact that the 2021/22 years in grades 2-12 are smaller than they appear to be. were in 2019/20, K-10 (two numbers smaller in each of those grades), according to the report.
However, with the increase in residential growth, the district is expected to have just over 6,000 students by 2026/24.
Newer inventory expands outward and is less affordable and has a higher median home value than older Gardner and Edgerton inventory.
According to the report
Key Considerations and Next Steps
The following will help the district achieve its educational goals:
• District administration and BOE further study enrollment, demographic and development information presented and annually review enrollment projections
• Determine criteria for addressing capacity issues and timing of elementary school challenges, including: Madison and Nike Elementary School are expected to be overcapacity by 2026/27; Many other schools in the district have an enrollment capacity of over 50; Redistricting option to balance elementary schools may need to be pursued
• Use the enrollment model to help plan staffing needs at each facility for the next school year, which will determine how quickly areas are “re-greened” and “emerging” (consider changes between enrollments in residence and in attendance)
• Monitor development and infrastructure activity to understand how this may impact future registrations
• Large development occurring east of I-35 will include multi-family and single-family units
• Almost all new residential activity will take place in the town of Gardner
• The type of residential development and its affordability will determine the likely location and number of students (Follow appendices and major development type for impact of demographics)
• Annually monitor the impact of future educational programs that will be integrated into each facility to ensure equitable and appropriate space is utilized in the building that will experience enrollment change (emerging trends and demographic change)
• Demographics are changing, causing some of the older areas of the community to produce fewer students than in the past
RER enrollment forecasts are based on the best known information at the time of the study
• Live birth data for Johnson County has declined over the past five years
• Kindergarten enrollment can be expected to be between 376 and 465 each year for the next three years
• Gardner Edgerton student migration recorded district-wide gain of five students
• Grand Star Elementary School and Trail Ridge Middle School had the largest increase in students from intra-district transfers
Historical observations on inscriptions:
• Total enrollment historically increased, district increased by 82 students from 2019/20
• 2020/21 was the only year the District decreased enrollment – this is likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic
• Biggest increase from 2019/20 was in grades 8-9
• The greatest increase was from 2014/15 to 2015/16 with an increase of 377 students
• Kindergarten enrollment has increased over the past 10 years, creating a massive influx of students
• 2021/22 saw a smaller kindergarten class (the first time there have been fewer than 400 since 2007/08)